Implied Probability Explained

Implied probability converts betting odds into the break-even probability suggested by the quoted price, before fully accounting for bookmaker margin.

Decimal odds

For decimal odds, implied probability = 1 ÷ decimal odds. Decimal 2.00 corresponds to 50%.

American odds

For positive odds +A: 100 ÷ (A + 100). For negative odds −A: A ÷ (A + 100), using the absolute value of A. For example, +150 implies 40% before adjusting for margin.

Why it matters

A prediction such as “Team A is likely to win” is incomplete without a price. Comparing your estimated probability with the market-implied probability is the bridge to expected value.

Educational information only. Sports betting involves financial risk and may be restricted where you live. No page on this site guarantees profit or a winning outcome.